1/20/2024 0 Comments E scribe virus![]() ![]() ![]() We identified distal and proximal drivers of links between habitat loss, climate and spillover, and predicted the risk of Hendra virus spillover in space and time. We developed and applied a Bayesian hierarchical network model to our 25 years of data on reservoir host ecology, behaviour and spillover events (Data Index in ref. We propose that these behavioural shifts increased spillover risk by increasing contact of bats with domestic horses, the intermediate hosts from which Hendra virus spills over into humans, and by increasing viral shedding from bat populations that have established outside their normal winter range 6. We found that bats were responding to environmental change by persistently behaving in ways that were previously observed as temporary responses to climate-driven food shortages. In this long-term study, we observed rapid changes in bat behaviour that coincided with the emergence of Hendra virus. Spillover of viruses from wildlife to humans has been correlated with land-use change through studies that associate land use, occurrence of spillover and presence of reservoir hosts, but without data that reveal the mechanisms 1. For example, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1, Nipah and Hendra viruses have caused human mortalities, sometimes after transmission through an intermediate host 5. Spillovers of viruses from bats have resulted in the emergence and spread of viruses in the human population. Zoonotic spillover is the transmission of a pathogen from a non-human vertebrate to a human 1. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections between habitat loss, climate and increased spillover risk. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of the 25 years. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. ![]() These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviours that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behaviour and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behaviour and viral dynamics. Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors 2, 3, although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified 4. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat 1. During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. ![]()
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